LBMA Forecasts Higher Gold and Silver prices in 2017 Video
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LBMA Forecasts Higher Gold and Silver prices in 2017
Today is Tuesday 7th February 2017 and we are briefly summarising the LBMA ‘s 2017 Gold and Silver Price outlook Report.
The LBMA or London Bullion Market Association is an international trade association, representing the London market for gold and silver bullion which has a global client base. This includes the majority of the gold-holding central banks, private sector investors, mining companies, producers, refiners and fabricators.
They have recently published their gold and silver forecast for 2017 in which its forecast contributors predict that the gold price will average $1,244/oz in 2017, 5.3% higher than the first half of January 2017, but broadly in line with the actual average prices in 2016.
The analyst who scooped first prize in the 2016 Forecast, Joni Teves, is the most bullish, forecasting an average price of $1,350/oz whilst Bernard Dahdah, who claimed first prize for palladium in the 2016 Survey is the most bearish with his average forecast of $1,110/oz.
We are now quoting directly from the Report:
“2017 will certainly be an eventful and unpredictable year given the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty, with a more nationalistic US President in residence and the indications that the UK will pursue a hard Brexit in its negotiations with the EU. There is also the prospect of further uncertainty with elections to be held later in 2017 in both France and Germany, as well as the potential for tensions between the US and China.
Analysts are predicting that the gold price will trade in an average range of $1,101/oz to $1,379/oz. Greater uncertainty should prove positive for gold as could higher inflation, if the new US administration adopts reflationary policies. On the downside are the anticipated three US rate hikes in 2017, a stronger US currency and rising stock prices as well as continued weak demand from both China and India.
Analysts are marginally more optimistic about the prospects for silver prices in 2017. They forecast that the price will increase by 7.1% to an average of $17.77/oz, with prices expected to trade in an average range of $15.13/oz to $20.66/oz. On the upside, analysts cite geopolitical uncertainty and a stronger economic outlook boosting industrial demand (which accounts for more than half of physical consumption); of new solar plants, especially in China is likely to boost demand from the photovoltaic industry. Negative influences on the silver price include the potential for higher Fed rates and yields, the risk of the Trump administration pursuing a damaging trade policy, as well as potential for a drag on prices given that silver comes into 2017 still burdened with a relatively large speculative overhang from both the ETF and the futures markets.”
So the LBMA is positive gold and silver and especially silver. Those who have followed our videos will know that we too predict silver will have a better return in 2017 than gold. Our calculations differ slightly from the LBMA however, but we will admit that the rest of this month may indeed see gold and silver prices rise further with gold currently standing at $1,233 oz and silver at $17.71 oz. $1300 gold and $18 silver is now within short term reach as paper traders with their technical analysis hats on, are already expecting silver to rise rapidly to $18.50 and gold to breach the $1300 mark.
We shall be providing our gold and silver price forecast for the year before the end of February, once all of Trump’s cabinet members are in place and we see the policy agendas. Meanwhile suffice to say that at present and viewing the short term, there certainly appears to be a floor now based for silver at $17 an oz and gold at $1200 oz – though quite frankly we do see these levels being breached lower later in the year.
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