What will happen to gold prices by end of 2018? (Part 2) Video
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What will happen to gold prices by end of 2018? (Part 2)
Please view our latetst videos:
What will happen to gold prices by end of 2018 (part 1)
https://youtu.be/i0uAErkb7Q0
What will happen to Silver Prices by the end of 2018 (Part 1 of 2)
https://youtu.be/6DN-0Jbrhv8
What will happen to Silver Prices by the end of 2018 (Part 2 of 2)
https://youtu.be/d52YYGijGQs
Gold and Silver weekly Update – w/e 3rd August 2018
https://youtu.be/XC79CfLVyIY
Gold falls below $1250 and silver below $16
https://youtu.be/L5CmhoSDV50
Copper – Its History and Prospects as an Investment Opportunity in 2018
https://youtu.be/JsIHjG3t7vQ
Gold falls below $1300 – will it fall further?
https://youtu.be/3JVnyy8r_jc
Today is Thursday 9th August 2018 and this is the final of a 2-part video highlighting what we believe will be the influences on the Gold price for the remainder of 2018 and where we predict prices will end up at the end of the year. Part 1 was published 2 days ago on Tuesday and we strongly recommend that you listen to it before proceeding with this one.
On Tuesday we stated that at the time of publishing, gold prices stood at $1,212 an ounce, they currently stand at the same level today, some 4% or $48 down on exactly a year ago and down some 8% or $100 lower since the start of 2018.
In 2018, prices oscillated between about $1,312 and $1,360 per ounce a margin of just 4% compared with 2017 where we saw a price swing from a low of $1,151 to a high of $1350 a margin of 13% swing and the price of gold actually rose that year by a very respectable $145 or 12.65%.
We highlighted that there were 6 major influencers on the gold investment market which were:
1. Geopolitical issues
2. Interest rates
3. Price manipulation
4. Internal US Politics.
5. Traditional Supply and Demand.
6. Alternative investment opportunities especially the equity
markets and cryptocurrencies with particular reference to bitcoin. Bearing in mind that equities gained 20% or more and bitcoin over 100% in the last 12 months.
We concluded the video by asking the questions has gold actually bottomed out in US dollar terms? Is the only direction from here up? And what is going to happen to gold prices in 2018?
Before we answer those questions lets just take a brief look at the levels some investment houses, banks and so-called experts in this area have predicted would be the gold price in 2018.
Jim Rickards Ex-CIA macroeconomic adviser published in his book ‘The New Case For Gold’ that gold could potentially hit $10,000 this year (in fact he said as early as January 2018) as gold will be necessary as ‘a linchpin of the global economy’ and a new kind of gold standard would be required as an ‘answer to US dollar stability’. Mmmmm we haven’t seen that as yet but there is still time we guess.
• Scotiabank has predicted that gold would average $1300 in 2018
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes it will rest around $1,326 by the end of the year
• Bank of China International predicts $1400 by year end
• Commerzbank $1500 by year end
• The Economy Forecast Agency predicts a 2018 close at $1023
• Jim Sinclair $10,000 by year end
• Thomson Reuters have predicted as late as May this year that Gold will average $1360 an ounce and could potentially touch $1500.
• JP Morgan lowered their forecast in June this year by 4-5% to an average gold price of $1,355 with similar figures from Goldman Sachs
• Danske Bank forecasts a gold price of $1250 in the fourth quarter of this year
• Commerzbank predicts gold will touch $1,400 by year end.
• Whilst The World bank predicts that both gold and silver prices have already reached their peak for the year.
So with such a diversity of views ranging from $1,023 - $1500 by serious analysts and a price as high as $10,000 by those needing to sell books and reports how can anyone give anything like an accurate forecast?
Well, no-one can precisely predict the future however one can make educated assessments and attempt to factor in various influences which could impact prices.
Notwithstanding this it is our assessment that we shall see gold dip below $1200 shortly and possibly touch as low as $1150 but will end the year somewhere between $1250 and $1300 with gold perhaps potentially peaking at $1400 in between.
So, we are somewhat more negative than many of the serious analysts as we believe there will be further economic growth, tax cuts and interest rate rises, but also believe that gold prices will bear up well despite what would traditionally be negative gold price influencers.
So, there we have it. What do you think? We shall be most interested to hear your views?
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