World Silver Survey 2018 – Our View and Breakdown Video
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World Silver Survey 2018 – Our View and Breakdown
Today is Friday 4th May and we are discussing the Thomson Reuters World Silver Survey 2018 published last month.
In summary; last year saw the 5th recorded silver market deficit in a row. A deficit of some 26 million ounces was recorded with mine supply falling by 4%. To put this mine supply fall in context though, it follows 13 consecutive years of annual increases – up to 2016.
Physical demand contracted by 2% in 2017 due to a fall of some 27% in coin and bar demand – falling from 207.8 million ounces to 151.1 million ounces. This is now the second consecutive annual decline in coin and bar demand falling from 292.1 million ounces in 2015 to 151.1 million ounces in 2017. Now this may surprise many listeners who hear the gurus constantly claiming that physical silver demand is rising and off the charts, with record sales in silver eagles etc etc. this simply is not the case and perhaps to use a now well-known expression – they are peddling FAKE NEWS.
Many reasons have been given for this fall in demand including increased revenues moving into equities and a transfer to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Also, to some extent the fear that higher interest rates may also reflect badly on both gold and silver prices.
On a positive note, jewellery demand rose by 2%, silverware by 12% and industrial fabrication by 4%. In fact, the interesting factor here is the ever-increasing use of silver for industrial purposes. In 2017 demand for Industrial fabrication represented some 70% of mine supply and 60% of total silver supply. This compares with 2016 of 65% and 56% respectively. One of the main reasons for this is that photovoltaic demand rose by 19% driven particularly by solar panel usage, mainly by Chinese households.
So Mine supply is down 4%, with total supply down 3.7%, coin and bar demand is down 27% with total physical demand down by 2.3% resulting in a physical deficit of 26 million ounces, and once factoring in ETP and Exchange Inventory build, a total deficit of 35.2 million ounces.
The average price of silver fell from $17.14 in 2016 to $17.05 in 2017.
So what are we to make of these figures and what do they tell us about the future?
Please view our latest videos:
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https://youtu.be/uAgbHCwYbV8
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https://youtu.be/6-LE_sQBrIE
The case for $600 Gold – unlikely but Interesting.
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