Investment Schizophrenia prior to a Trump Presidency Video
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Investment Schizophrenia prior to a Trump Presidency
Today is Monday 16th January 2017 and we are briefly commenting on why we believe there is schizophrenia in the investment market about a Trump Presidency.
We all know that Investment Managers and Traders attempt to predict future market movements based on a number of variables. One of the greatest variables for 2017 is in our opinion the impact of a Donald Trump Presidency. We have already seen that since his becoming President-elect the Dow Jones has risen over 1500 points when during the same period after Obama's 2008 victory, the Dow had fallen 1,000 points. Of course, during much of Obama's term stocks have rallied: the Dow has gained close to 10,000 points since he was elected.
Gold in this period has fallen by around $80 and silver by almost $2 an oz and the dollar index has moved up from 97 to 101.
So what does this suggest? Well many fund managers believe that a Trump victory – especially coupled with a Republican Congress – is very good for US mid cap, US small cap and overseas markets, such as Japan, that are sensitive to a strong USD vs their own weak domestic currency.
Shortly after the US Election results, the market began to immediately discount expected policy changes in 2017 that will likely lead to a pro-growth economic agenda which resulted in the figures just mentioned. That agenda includes cuts in individual and corporate tax rates, increased spending on defence and infrastructure, and a rollback on energy (good for energy stocks and industrials), and regulations including Dodd-Frank (good for financials) and the Affordable Care Act (good for small businesses).
This raises expectations for faster GDP and private sector job growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and, in the immediate future, a stronger Dollar.
This augers well for the equity markets and a stronger dollar and interest rates and augers poorly for precious metals such as gold and silver.
Now this is where the schizophrenia comes in.
President-elect Trump has already called out China and threatened tariffs against it if it continues to devalue its currency. He has also stated that he wishes to form a closer relationship with Russia and has condemned his security services for leaks and breaches of information. In addition, his wall with Mexico will go ahead and Muslims and others wishing to immigrate to the US are anxiously waiting to hear what policies Trump will actually put in place which may affect them. He has muted an intervention in North Korea to prevent them developing their nuclear arsenal and no-one yet knows what he is going to do about Iran and its potential nuclear programme.
This all serves to create uncertainty and by its very nature causes both concern and insecurity which markets do not like. In addition there could be retaliation, counter tariffs and perhaps even the selling of dollar denominated assets abroad. Should a President Trump introduce what may indeed be controversial policies and especially some that could have military repercussions, then there is no doubt equity markets will suffer, the dollar will fall and there will be a flight to precious metals. The very opposite from the first proposition we have mentioned.
What will happen? No-one really knows. The stock markets have had a good run under Obama whilst the precious metals markets have not. Yes this could all be reversed or alternatively, Trump may prove less confrontational than many suspect and the US economy rip-roars ahead.
We shall all get a better idea in a couple of weeks as President Trump settles into his job and makes his policy announcements. Meanwhile any rise or fall in gold and silver prices during this week will have little bearing on their longer term movements including the rest of the year until there is greater certainty coming out of the Republican camp.
The situation is finely balanced but we do suspect there will be some currency, equity and commodity turmoil in both directions as we approach Inauguration Day and will glean a much clearer picture, as to the future, by the end of this month.
Please view our latest videos:
US Mint announces new Mixed Race Liberty Gold Coin
https://youtu.be/2IW_XXopNfE
Gold and Silver Update – w/e 13th January 2017
https://youtu.be/lWrc8Nzrk0g
Is the World Economy Recovering or Faltering?
https://youtu.be/4rwJXtaOXQA
The Liquid element of a precious metal portfolio – by cabadjo.
https://youtu.be/LZVEV7rJMuc
Zero Hedge Headline debunked for Exaggeration or Scaremongering.
https://youtu.be/KtOst5V0QH4
China’s Finance Ministry expects 6.7% growth for 2016
https://youtu.be/mdhjfjXkXWA
Gold and Silver Update - 6th January 2017
https://youtu.be/7Bryoj9lLkw
Jobs Figures Disappoint but still suggests lower gold and silver prices ahead
https://youtu.be/7wiPEmzRSGU
First Silver Unboxing of 2017 - Illuminati Silver
https://youtu.be/QLiXw2UQPzI
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